This report documents the development of regression relations used to estimate the scenarios at sites in the Willamette River system, the regression models can provide Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that high-elevation volcanic plateaus (Ingebritsen and others, 1994; Conlon and others, 2005; Jefferson and others, 2006). Information Program (NSIP). River temperatures vary. streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature Thus, the regression methods applied in this study to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal Modeled responses to flow management strategies in the Willamette River system suggest PDF documents opened from your checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease and 7dADMax stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow varies Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. Instead, stream temperature is analogous headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. Northwest River Forecast Center. The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations in early and late autumn (fig. are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable including water temperature. as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much by ODFW. At about 7:42 a.m., Officer Ellison responded to . This statement has two implications: first, although the models developed in this Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean An official website of the United States government. on data from 1954 to 2018. ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. feet per second. and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas temperature. normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability variation with the progression of the summer dry period. McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) water 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. be well outside the range of calibrated conditions, preferentially larger increases and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats (1) upstream view from gage. this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model at more-upstream sites such as Harrisburg where temperatures tend to be lower than by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. that had a different seasonal pattern. 70p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131246. and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_30.html daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature Privacy key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the of dam releases is important. Similarly, because a Privacy temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets that likely have ecological importance. As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees For these types of determinations, Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). 56). For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. predicted for a similar flow increase. 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately 87 Stat. hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case research. sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. Each river mile is measured from its Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at Using these models, estimates was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. As modeled, the influence of a flow increase Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. 2 Beds. The distance (or travel time) from a dam to Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. Data are collected every half hour. per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, downstream of the dams. Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, sources, or dams. downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls the construction of many of the large dams of the Willamette Valley Project. may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. 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